The 2005-06 Final “What If” Standings

When the Olympic break hit the NHL, I posted the "What If" Standings, a breakdown of the NHL standings and what they would have looked like with different point systems. The premise is simple, just tweak the math and see where the teams fall.

I had a few point systems, including the popular suggested 3-point regulation win. I also added two point systems suggested by commenters Bryant and Otto.

The point systems:
PTS - Current NHL point system
PSO - Points without shootout wins (as if the game ended in a tie)
P3PT - Points if regulation wins are worth 3 pts, overtime and shootout wins are 2 pts
P321 - Regulation win are 3 pts, OT win are 2 pts, SO win are 1 pts, Loss are 0 pts
P2PT - All wins are 2 pts, losses are 0

Best to get this stuff out of the way early so this thing makes sense. Unfortunately this will break my design, but I'll come up with a fix for that another time.

Legend:
GP - Games played
W - Wins
L - Losses
OTL - Overtime losses
SOL - Shootout losses
SOW - Shootout wins
GF - Goals for
GA - Goals against
RK - Rank

To attempt to make this easier to read:
- Since all point systems are ranked, I blocked them together with alternating background colors.
- Mouseover will highlight the row you're on.
- Where a team moved into a playoff position, the rank is bold green.
- Where a team moved out of a playoff position, the rank is bold red.

Eastern Conference
GP W L OTL SOL SOW RK PTS RK PSO RK P3PT RK P321 RK P2PT GF GA
Ottawa Senators 82 52 21 3 6 2 1 113 1 111 1 163 1 148 1 104 314 211
Carolina Hurricanes 82 52 22 6 2 8 2 112 3 104 2 156 2 128 2 104 294 260
New Jersey Devils 82 46 27 5 4 9 3 101 6 92 3 138 3 107 3 92 242 229
Buffalo Sabres 82 52 24 1 5 5 4 110 2 105 4 157 4 135 4 104 281 239
Philadelphia Flyers 82 45 26 5 6 4 5 101 4 97 5 142 5 116 5 90 267 259
New York Rangers 82 44 26 8 4 7 6 100 5 93 6 137 7 107 6 88 257 215
Montreal Canadiens 82 42 31 6 3 2 7 93 7 91 7 133 6 113 8 84 243 247
Tampa Bay Lightning 82 43 33 2 4 6 8 92 9 86 8 129 9 105 7 86 252 260
Atlanta Thrashers 82 41 33 3 5 5 9 90 10 85 10 126 10 103 9 82 281 275
Toronto Maple Leafs 82 41 33 1 7 3 10 90 8 87 9 128 8 107 10 82 257 270
Florida Panthers 82 37 34 6 5 4 11 85 11 81 11 118 11 91 11 74 240 257
New York Islanders 82 36 40 3 3 9 12 78 13 69 12 105 12 78 12 72 230 278
Boston Bruins 82 29 37 8 8 2 13 74 12 72 13 101 13 77 13 58 230 266
Washington Capitals 82 29 41 6 6 7 14 70 14 63 14 92 14 64 14 58 237 306
Pittsburgh Penguins 82 22 46 8 6 1 15 58 15 57 15 79 15 59 15 44 244 316
 
Western Conference
  GP W L OTL SOL SOW RK PTS RK PSO RK P3PT RK P321 RK P2PT GF GA
Detroit Red Wings 82 58 16 5 3 4 1 124 1 120 1 178 1 159 1 116 305 209
Dallas Stars 82 53 23 5 1 12 2 112 3 100 2 153 3 120 2 106 265 218
Calgary Flames 82 46 25 4 7 2 3 103 2 101 3 147 2 130 3 92 218 200
Nashville Predators 82 49 25 5 3 6 4 106 4 100 4 149 4 126 4 98 259 227
San Jose Sharks 82 44 27 4 7 1 5 99 5 98 5 142 5 120 5 88 266 242
Anaheim Mighty Ducks 82 43 27 5 7 3 6 98 6 95 6 138 6 117 6 86 254 229
Colorado Avalanche 82 43 30 3 6 3 7 95 7 92 7 135 7 117 7 86 283 257
Edmonton Oilers 82 41 28 4 9 7 8 95 9 88 9 129 11 96 10 82 256 251
Vancouver Canucks 82 42 32 4 4 4 9 92 8 88 8 130 8 110 8 84 256 255
Los Angeles Kings 82 42 35 4 1 6 10 89 10 83 10 125 9 104 9 84 249 270
Minnesota Wild 82 38 36 5 3 5 11 84 11 79 11 117 10 98 11 76 231 215
Phoenix Coyotes 82 38 39 2 3 4 12 81 12 77 12 115 12 96 12 76 246 271
Columbus Blue Jackets 82 35 43 1 3 8 13 74 13 66 13 101 13 75 13 70 223 279
Chicago Blackhawks 82 26 43 7 6 2 14 65 14 63 14 89 14 65 14 52 211 285
St. Louis Blues 82 21 46 7 8 4 15 57 15 53 15 74 15 48 15 42 197 292

So what do we learn from all this? That whatever point system the NHL chooses will change the standings very little. You want to make the playoffs? Just win baby. Regulation, overtime, shootout - just keep winning.

The popular suggestion of moving to a 3-point regulation win system changed absolutely nothing in the Eastern Conference outside of Toronto breaking the tie with Atlanta (Atlanta currently wins the tie-breaker with goals for since each team has the same number of wins). A 9-10 positional swap. Surely to delight Tom Benjamin and Jeff & Alanah, Vancouver would make the playoffs in the Western Conference by beating out Edmonton by a point.

In fact, Vancouver makes the playoffs in all scenarios but the current NHL system. Edmonton, short on wins compared to Vancouver and Los Angeles, sometimes drops more than one spot in the rankings.

To drive home the point: the 3-point regulation win system only changed one position out of sixteen. Not that 15 of the same 16 teams would make the playoffs, but 15 of 16 rankings were exactly the same.

So now that you see the numbers, team association aside, are the one or two swaps per system worth a point system revamp?

Posted by David M Singer on Apr 19, 2006 at 03:50 AM
NHL

Comments:

  1. Awesome job, David.

    HTML tables are evil, but they can be damn effective.

    Posted by roddie on Apr 20, 2006 at 12:04 AM

  2. Well done, David, but I’m not delighted.  I just feel ill.  We were ROBBED!!!  I knew it! wink

    Posted by Alanah on Apr 20, 2006 at 02:45 AM

  3. Wow! Nice work David. I guess I should stop complaining to everyone who will listen about the “extra point” that is given away in overtime games. It doesn’t seem to make much difference in the standings—unless of course you are Canucks fan.

    Posted by Otto on Apr 21, 2006 at 06:05 PM
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