So Many Comebacks Not Researched
Are you sick of hearing “no lead is safe in the new NHL” yet? I am, and I’ve been wondering how many teams are coming back from the 7-2 boring blowouts I’ve watched. Don’t get me wrong, I’ve seen some good, close games, I’m just not drinking the Komeback Kool-Aid.
Neither is Tom Benjamin, who wrote a few days ago that there are no more comebacks (when a team is leading after the second period) than there were last season, and he’s got the statistics to back it up.
That’s why I was in shock when I saw this article in today’s Globe and Mail. For the most part it’s supposed to be cheeky, about how beat writers used to be able to mail home the story about the game by the end of the second period, but now, because of all the comebacks, they have to wait until the very end of the game to write their piece.
Through the first month of the 2003-04 season, the numbers to back up this trend were staggering. In the opening 142 games of that season, teams that got down 1-0 had just a 16.9 per cent chance of winning in regulation time. If that deficit went to 2-0, the percentage of winning in regulation time dropped by half to 8.3 per cent.
Meanwhile, teams that held leads - any leads - after two periods compiled a record of 87-7-19 in regulation time. Which meant the possibility of a team that was leading after two periods coming away without at least a point was 93.8 per cent.
You don’t need statistics to know that’s not the case anymore. The new NHL has restored the element of surprise to hockey, that sense that any letdown could invite disaster.
Woah. I do need statistics. They make the world go round. Or is that love? Or money? Or CBA agreements? Either way, the first thing I thought of was Tom’s blog entry from a few days ago and how he might react to this story. Patience did me well as Tom decides to post those statistics we didn’t need to know.
So far this year, teams leading after the second period have compiled a record of 85-6-7. Which means the possibility of a team that is leading after two periods but coming away without at least a point is now 93.9 per cent. It turns out there are actually fewer come from behind victories in the new NHL than in the old one.
Guess those beat writers can still get home early after all.
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