Avoiding the Shootout
Moving away from catch phrases about the “new” NHL, it’s time to look at a few numbers. They’re easy to look at too, as it seems to be even number day…
Games: 150
Goals per game: 6.31
Shootout games: 12
Goals per game minus shootouts: 6.23
Games that went into ot: 30
Percentage of all games that went in ot: 20.00%
Percentage of games in ot that ended in a win: 60.00%
The percentage of games that go into overtime is around the norm. But the percentage that end within the 5 minute overtime period? 60%? That’s pretty high. For reference, this post includes numbers from the past few years. For the regular seasons listed, somewhere in between 44-49% of games in overtime have a winner (by scoring a goal, the rest were all those tie-things, whatever those are).
So this season is seeing over 10% more games settled in the overtime period?! Is it because there’s less clutch and grab, and with 4-on-4 play, it’s just so open players get better chances? Is it because some players are determined not to go to a shootout?
Well, the answer is it could just be dumb luck. Looking at raw numbers, it only means about 4 more games were decided in overtime compared to what the norm would be. It is a good amount when you’re dealing with such a small sample of games (30), but the point is 30 isn’t a big sample to begin with and you really have to wait at least half a year (615 total games) before numbers like this could possibly mean anything.
The point of all this? None really, they’re just fun numbers, but do try and not be fooled by early season “the game has changed!” declarations, and be weary of percentages when so few games have been played. After all, you could take the “we only have four ‘real’ losses” Pittsburgh Penguins out of the equation and things look pretty normal.
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